Quantifying excess deaths related to heatwaves under climate change scenarios: A multicountry time series modelling study.

ABSTRACT:

Background

Heatwaves are a critical public health problem. There will be an increase in the frequency and severity of heatwaves under changing climate. However, evidence about the impacts of climate change on heatwave-related mortality at a global scale is limited.

Methods and findings

We collected historical daily time series of mean temperature and mortality for all causes or nonexternal causes, in periods ranging from January 1, 1984, to December 31, 2015, in 412 communities within 20 countries/regions. We estimated heatwave-mortality associations through a two-stage time series design. Current and future daily mean temperature series were projected under four scenarios of greenhouse gas emissions from 1971-2099, with five general circulation models. We projected excess m

SUBMITTER: Guo Y 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC6067704 | biostudies-literature | 2018 Jul

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature