Risk Assessment and Mapping of Hand, Foot, and Mouth Disease at the County Level in Mainland China Using Spatiotemporal Zero-Inflated Bayesian Hierarchical Models.

ABSTRACT: Hand, foot, and mouth disease (HFMD) is a worldwide infectious disease, prominent in China. China's HFMD data are sparse with a large number of observed zeros across locations and over time. However, no previous studies have considered such a zero-inflated problem on HFMD's spatiotemporal risk analysis and mapping, not to mention for the entire Mainland China at county level. Monthly county-level HFMD cases data combined with related climate and socioeconomic variables were collected. We developed four models, including spatiotemporal Poisson, negative binomial, zero-inflated Poisson (ZIP), and zero-inflated negative binomial (ZINB) models under the Bayesian hierarchical modeling framework to explore disease spatiotemporal patterns. The results showed that the spatiotemporal ZINB model per

SUBMITTER: Song C 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC6069258 | biostudies-literature | 2018 Jul

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature