A mathematical model for Zika virus transmission dynamics with a time-dependent mosquito biting rate.

ABSTRACT:

Background

Mathematical modeling has become a tool used to address many emerging diseases. One of the most basic and popular modeling frameworks is the compartmental model. Unfortunately, most of the available compartmental models developed for Zika virus (ZIKV) transmission were designed to describe and reconstruct only past, short-time ZIKV outbreaks in which the effects of seasonal change to entomological parameters can be ignored. To make an accurate long-term prediction of ZIKV transmission, the inclusion of seasonal effects into an epidemic model is unavoidable.

Methods

We developed a vector-borne compartmental model to analyze the spread of the ZIKV during the 2015-2016 outbreaks in Bahia, Brazil and to investigate the impact of two vector control strategies, namely,

SUBMITTER: Suparit P 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC6069545 | biostudies-literature | 2018 Aug

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature