Less Than 2 °C Warming by 2100 Unlikely.

ABSTRACT: The recently published Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) projections to 2100 give likely ranges of global temperature increase in four scenarios for population, economic growth and carbon use¹. However these projections are not based on a fully statistical approach. Here we use a country-specific version of Kaya's identity to develop a statistically-based probabilistic forecast of CO2 emissions and temperature change to 2100. Using data for 1960-2010, including the UN's probabilistic population projections for all countries^2-4, we develop a joint Bayesian hierarchical model for GDP per capita and carbon intensity. We find that the 90% interval for cumulative CO2 emissions includes the IPCC's two middle scenarios but not the extreme ones. The likely rang

SUBMITTER: Raftery AE 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC6070153 | biostudies-literature | 2017

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature