Prediction of dengue outbreaks in Mexico based on entomological, meteorological and demographic data.

ABSTRACT: Dengue virus has shown a complex pattern of transmission across Latin America over the last two decades. In an attempt to explain the permanence of the disease in regions subjected to drought seasons lasting over six months, various hypotheses have been proposed. These include transovarial transmission, forest reservoirs and asymptomatic human virus carriers. Dengue virus is endemic in Mexico, a country in which half of the population is seropositive. Seropositivity is a risk factor for Dengue Hemorrhagic Fever upon a second encounter with the dengue virus. Since Dengue Hemorrhagic Fever can cause death, it is important to develop epidemiological mathematical tools that enable policy makers to predict regions potentially at risk for a dengue epidemic. We formulated a mathematical model of

SUBMITTER: Sanchez-Gonzalez G 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC6078291 | biostudies-literature | 2018

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature