Mapping future fire probability under climate change: Does vegetation matter?

ABSTRACT: Understanding where and how fire patterns may change is critical for management and policy decision-making. To map future fire patterns, statistical correlative models are typically developed, which associate observed fire locations with recent climate maps, and are then applied to maps of future climate projections. A potential source of uncertainty is the common omission of static or dynamic vegetation as predictor variables. We therefore assessed the sensitivity of future fire projections to different combinations of vegetation maps used as explanatory variables in a statistically based fire modeling framework. We compared models without vegetation to models that incorporated static vegetation maps and that included output from a dynamic vegetation model that imposed three scenarios of

SUBMITTER: Syphard AD 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC6078303 | biostudies-literature | 2018

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature