Modeling the impact of changes in day-care contact patterns on the dynamics of varicella transmission in France between 1991 and 2015.

ABSTRACT: Annual incidence rates of varicella infection in the general population in France have been rather stable since 1991 when clinical surveillance started. Rates however show a statistically significant increase over time in children aged 0-3 years, and a decline in older individuals. A significant increase in day-care enrolment and structures' capacity in France was also observed in the last decade. In this work we investigate the potential interplay between an increase of contacts of young children possibly caused by earlier socialization in the community and varicella transmission dynamics. To this aim, we develop an age-structured mathematical model, informed with historical demographic data and contact matrix estimates in the country, accounting for longitudinal linear increase of early

SUBMITTER: Marziano V 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC6089450 | biostudies-literature | 2018 Aug

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature