A dynamic Bayesian Markov model for health economic evaluations of interventions in infectious disease.

ABSTRACT:

Background

Health economic evaluations of interventions in infectious disease are commonly based on the predictions of ordinary differential equation (ODE) systems or Markov models (MMs). Standard MMs are static, whereas ODE systems are usually dynamic and account for herd immunity which is crucial to prevent overestimation of infection prevalence. Complex ODE systems including distributions on model parameters are computationally intensive. Thus, mainly ODE-based models including fixed parameter values are presented in the literature. These do not account for parameter uncertainty. As a consequence, probabilistic sensitivity analysis (PSA), a crucial component of health economic evaluations, cannot be conducted straightforwardly.

Methods

We present a dynamic MM under a Baye

SUBMITTER: Haeussler K 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC6090931 | biostudies-literature | 2018 Aug

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature