Ensemble Prediction of a Halo Coronal Mass Ejection Using Heliospheric Imagers.

ABSTRACT: The Solar TErrestrial RElations Observatory (STEREO) and its heliospheric imagers (HIs) have provided us the possibility to enhance our understanding of the interplanetary propagation of coronal mass ejections (CMEs). HI-based methods are able to forecast arrival times and speeds at any target and use the advantage of tracing a CME's path of propagation up to 1 AU and beyond. In our study, we use the ELEvoHI model for CME arrival prediction together with an ensemble approach to derive uncertainties in the modeled arrival time and impact speed. The CME from 3 November 2010 is analyzed by performing 339 model runs that are compared to in situ measurements from lined-up spacecraft MErcury Surface, Space ENvironment, GEochemistry, and Ranging and STEREO-B. Remote data from STEREO-B showed the

SUBMITTER: Amerstorfer T 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC6099306 | biostudies-literature | 2018 Jul

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature