Local and regional dynamics of chikungunya virus transmission in Colombia: the role of mismatched spatial heterogeneity.

ABSTRACT:

Background

Mathematical models of transmission dynamics are routinely fitted to epidemiological time series, which must inevitably be aggregated at some spatial scale. Weekly case reports of chikungunya have been made available nationally for numerous countries in the Western Hemisphere since late 2013, and numerous models have made use of this data set for forecasting and inferential purposes. Motivated by an abundance of literature suggesting that the transmission of this mosquito-borne pathogen is localized at scales much finer than nationally, we fitted models at three different spatial scales to weekly case reports from Colombia to explore limitations of analyses of nationally aggregated time series data.

Methods

We adapted the recently developed Disease Transmission Ke

SUBMITTER: Moore SM 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC6116375 | biostudies-literature | 2018 Aug

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature