Comparison of ARIMA and GM(1,1) models for prediction of hepatitis B in China.

ABSTRACT:

Background

Hepatitis B virus (HBV) infection is a major public health threat in China for China has a hepatitis B prevalence of more than one million people in 2017 year. Disease incidence prediction may help hepatitis B prevention and control. This study intends to build and compare 2 forecasting models for hepatitis B incidence in China.

Methods

Autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model and grey model GM(1,1) were adopted to fit the monthly incidence of hepatitis B in China from March 2010 to October 2017. The fitting and forecasting performances of the 2 models were evaluated. The better one was adopted to predict the incidence from November 2017 to March 2018. Database was built by Excel 2016 and statistical analysis was completed using R 3.4.3 software.

SUBMITTER: Wang YW 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC6122800 | biostudies-literature | 2018

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature