Dataset Information

Absolute risk and predictors of the growth of acute spontaneous intracerebral haemorrhage: a systematic review and meta-analysis of individual patient data.

ABSTRACT:

Background

Intracerebral haemorrhage growth is associated with poor clinical outcome and is a therapeutic target for improving outcome. We aimed to determine the absolute risk and predictors of intracerebral haemorrhage growth, develop and validate prediction models, and evaluate the added value of CT angiography.

Methods

In a systematic review of OVID MEDLINE-with additional hand-searching of relevant studies' bibliographies- from Jan 1, 1970, to Dec 31, 2015, we identified observational cohorts and randomised trials with repeat scanning protocols that included at least ten patients with acute intracerebral haemorrhage. We sought individual patient-level data from corresponding authors for patients aged 18 years or older with data available from brain imaging initially done 0·5-24 h and repeated fewer than 6 days after symptom onset, who had baseline intracerebral haemorrhage volume of less than 150 mL, and did not undergo acute treatment that might reduce intracerebral haemorrhage volume. We estimated the absolute risk and predictors of the primary outcome of intracerebral haemorrhage growth (defined as >6 mL increase in intracerebral haemorrhage volume on repeat imaging) using multivariable logistic regression models in development and validation cohorts in four subgroups of patients, using a hierarchical approach: patients not taking anticoagulant therapy at intracerebral haemorrhage onset (who constituted the largest subgroup), patients taking anticoagulant therapy at intracerebral haemorrhage onset, patients from cohorts that included at least some patients taking anticoagulant therapy at intracerebral haemorrhage onset, and patients for whom both information about anticoagulant therapy at intracerebral haemorrhage onset and spot sign on acute CT angiography were known.

Findings

Of 4191 studies identified, 77 were eligible for inclusion. Overall, 36 (47%) cohorts provided data on 5435 eligible patients. 5076 of these patients were not taking anticoagulant therapy at symptom onset (median age 67 years, IQR 56-76), of whom 1009 (20%) had intracerebral haemorrhage growth. Multivariable models of patients with data on antiplatelet therapy use, data on anticoagulant therapy use, and assessment of CT angiography spot sign at symptom onset showed that time from symptom onset to baseline imaging (odds ratio 0·50, 95% CI 0·36-0·70; p<0·0001), intracerebral haemorrhage volume on baseline imaging (7·18, 4·46-11·60; p<0·0001), antiplatelet use (1·68, 1·06-2·66; p=0·026), and anticoagulant use (3·48, 1·96-6·16; p<0·0001) were independent predictors of intracerebral haemorrhage growth (C-index 0·78, 95% CI 0·75-0·82). Addition of CT angiography spot sign (odds ratio 4·46, 95% CI 2·95-6·75; p<0·0001) to the model increased the C-index by 0·05 (95% CI 0·03-0·07).

Interpretation

In this large patient-level meta-analysis, models using four or five predictors had acceptable to good discrimination. These models could inform the location and frequency of observations on patients in clinical practice, explain treatment effects in prior randomised trials, and guide the design of future trials.

Funding

UK Medical Research Council and British Heart Foundation.

SUBMITTER: Al-Shahi Salman R

PROVIDER: S-EPMC6143589 | biostudies-literature | 2018 Oct

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Publications

Absolute risk and predictors of the growth of acute spontaneous intracerebral haemorrhage: a systematic review and meta-analysis of individual patient data.

Al-Shahi Salman Rustam R Frantzias Joseph J Lee Robert J RJ Lyden Patrick D PD Battey Thomas W K TWK Ayres Alison M AM Goldstein Joshua N JN Mayer Stephan A SA Steiner Thorsten T Wang Xia X Arima Hisatomi H Hasegawa Hitoshi H Oishi Makoto M Godoy Daniel A DA Masotti Luca L Dowlatshahi Dar D Rodriguez-Luna David D Molina Carlos A CA Jang Dong-Kyu DK Davalos Antonio A Castillo José J Yao Xiaoying X Claassen Jan J Volbers Bastian B Kazui Seiji S Okada Yasushi Y Fujimoto Shigeru S Toyoda Kazunori K Li Qi Q Khoury Jane J Delgado Pilar P Sabín José Álvarez JÁ Hernández-Guillamon Mar M Prats-Sánchez Luis L Cai Chunyan C Kate Mahesh P MP McCourt Rebecca R Venkatasubramanian Chitra C Diringer Michael N MN Ikeda Yukio Y Worthmann Hans H Ziai Wendy C WC d'Esterre Christopher D CD Aviv Richard I RI Raab Peter P Murai Yasuo Y Zazulia Allyson R AR Butcher Kenneth S KS Seyedsaadat Seyed Mohammad SM Grotta James C JC Martí-Fàbregas Joan J Montaner Joan J Broderick Joseph J Yamamoto Haruko H Staykov Dimitre D Connolly E Sander ES Selim Magdy M Leira Rogelio R Moon Byung Hoo BH Demchuk Andrew M AM Di Napoli Mario M Fujii Yukihiko Y Anderson Craig S CS Rosand Jonathan J

The Lancet. Neurology 20180814 10

<h4>Background</h4>Intracerebral haemorrhage growth is associated with poor clinical outcome and is a therapeutic target for improving outcome. We aimed to determine the absolute risk and predictors of intracerebral haemorrhage growth, develop and validate prediction models, and evaluate the added value of CT angiography.<h4>Methods</h4>In a systematic review of OVID MEDLINE-with additional hand-searching of relevant studies' bibliographies- from Jan 1, 1970, to Dec 31, 2015, we identified obser ...[more]

PMID: 30120039

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Project description:BackgroundOutcome after spontaneous (non-traumatic) intracerebral haemorrhage (ICH) is influenced by haematoma volume; up to one-third of ICHs enlarge within 24 hours of onset. Early haemostatic therapy might improve outcome by limiting haematoma growth. This is an update of a Cochrane Review first published in 2006, and last updated in 2009.ObjectivesTo examine 1) the effectiveness and safety of individual classes of haemostatic therapies, compared against placebo or open control, in adults with acute spontaneous intracerebral haemorrhage, and 2) the effects of each class of haemostatic therapy according to the type of antithrombotic drug taken immediately before ICH onset (i.e. anticoagulant, antiplatelet, or none).Search methodsWe searched the Cochrane Stroke Trials Register, CENTRAL; 2017, Issue 11, MEDLINE Ovid, and Embase Ovid on 27 November 2017. In an effort to identify further published, ongoing, and unpublished randomised controlled trials (RCT), we scanned bibliographies of relevant articles and searched international registers of RCTs in November 2017.Selection criteriaWe sought randomised controlled trials (RCTs) of any haemostatic intervention (i.e. pro-coagulant treatments such as coagulation factors, antifibrinolytic drugs, or platelet transfusion) for acute spontaneous ICH, compared with placebo, open control, or an active comparator, reporting relevant clinical outcome measures.Data collection and analysisTwo authors independently extracted data, assessed risk of bias, and contacted corresponding authors of eligible RCTs for specific data if they were not provided in the published report of an RCT.Main resultsWe included 12 RCTs involving 1732 participants. There were seven RCTs of blood clotting factors versus placebo or open control involving 1480 participants, three RCTs of antifibrinolytic drugs versus placebo or open control involving 57 participants, one RCT of platelet transfusion versus open control involving 190 participants, and one RCT of blood clotting factors versus fresh frozen plasma involving five participants. We were unable to include two eligible RCTs because they presented aggregate data for adults with ICH and other types of intracranial haemorrhage. We identified 10 ongoing RCTs. Across all seven criteria in the 12 included RCTs, the risk of bias was unclear in 37 (44%), high in 16 (19%), and low in 31 (37%). Only one RCT was at low risk of bias in all criteria.In one RCT of platelet transfusion versus open control for acute spontaneous ICH associated with antiplatelet drug use, there was a significant increase in death or dependence (modified Rankin Scale score 4 to 6) at day 90 (70/97 versus 52/93; risk ratio (RR) 1.29, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.04 to 1.61, one trial, 190 participants, moderate-quality evidence). All findings were non-significant for blood clotting factors versus placebo or open control for acute spontaneous ICH with or without surgery (moderate-quality evidence), for antifibrinolytic drugs versus placebo (moderate-quality evidence) or open control for acute spontaneous ICH (moderate-quality evidence), and for clotting factors versus fresh frozen plasma for acute spontaneous ICH associated with anticoagulant drug use (no evidence).Authors' conclusionsBased on moderate-quality evidence from one trial, platelet transfusion seems hazardous in comparison to standard care for adults with antiplatelet-associated ICH.We were unable to draw firm conclusions about the efficacy and safety of blood clotting factors for acute spontaneous ICH with or without surgery, antifibrinolytic drugs for acute spontaneous ICH, and clotting factors versus fresh frozen plasma for acute spontaneous ICH associated with anticoagulant drug use.Further RCTs are warranted, and we await the results of the 10 ongoing RCTs with interest.

Project description:BackgroundSurgical interventions for spontaneous supratentorial intracerebral haemorrhage (ICH) include conventional craniotomy (CC), decompressive craniectomy (DC), and minimally invasive surgery (MIS), with the latter encompassing endoscopic surgery (ES) and minimally invasive puncture surgery (MIPS). However, the superiority of surgery over conservative medical treatment (CMT) and the comparative benefits of different surgical procedures remain unclear. We aimed to evaluate the efficacy and safety of various surgical interventions for treating ICH.MethodsIn this systematic review and network meta-analysis, we searched PubMed, Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials, Embase, and ClinicalTrials.gov from inception to June 16, 2024. Eligible studies were randomised controlled trials (RCTs) comparing surgery (i.e., CC, ES, MIPS, or DC) with CMT or comparing different types of surgeries in patients with spontaneous supratentorial ICH. Paired reviewers independently screened citations, assessed the risk of bias of included trials, and extracted data. Primary outcomes were good functional outcome and mortality at 6 months. Secondary outcomes were good functional outcome and mortality at different follow-up times, complications (rebleeding, brain infection, pulmonary infection), and hematoma evacuation rate. The frequentist pairwise and network meta-analysis (NMA) were performed. The GRADE approach was used to evaluate the certainty of evidence. This study is registered with PROSPERO, CRD42024518961.FindingsOf the 8573 total records identified by our searches, 31 studies (6448 patients) were eligible for the systematic review and network analysis. Compared with CMT, moderate certainty evidence showed that surgery improved good functional outcome (risk ratio [RR] 1.31, 95% CI 1.13-1.52; risk difference [RD] 9.1%, 95% CI 3.8 to 15.3; I 2 = 36%) and reduced mortality (RR 0.82, 95% CI 0.71-0.95; RD -5.1%, 95% CI -8.2 to -1.4; I 2 = 14%). Moderate certainty evidence from NMA suggested that compared with CMT, both ES (RR 1.51, 95% CI 1.18-1.93; RD 9.4%, 95% CI 3.3-17.1) and MIPS (RR 1.48, 95% CI 1.24-1.76; RD 15.7%, 95% CI 7.9-24.9) improved good functional outcome at 6 months, and both ES (RR 0.66, 95% CI 0.52-0.85; RD -17.0%, 95% CI -24.0 to -7.5) and CC (RR 0.75, 95% CI 0.60-0.94; RD -6.3%, 95% CI -10.1 to -1.5) reduced mortality at 6 months, whereas MIPS and DC showed a trend, although not statistically significant, towards a reduction in mortality. ES and MIPS also reduced pulmonary infection risk (ES RR 0.39, 95% CI 0.23-0.69; MIPS RR 0.35, 95% CI 0.20-0.60; RD -5.3%, 95% CI -6.6 to -3.3). ES showed higher hematoma evacuation than CC (MD: 7.03, 95% CI: 3.42-10.65; I 2 = 94%). No difference in rebleeding or brain infection was found between CC and MIS.InterpretationCurrent moderate certainty evidence suggested that surgical intervention of spontaneous supratentorial ICH, may be associated with improved functional outcomes and a reduced risk of death at 6 months. The advantages of surgical haematoma removal are particularly pronounced when MIS including ES and MIPS are employed. ES could improve functional outcomes, reduce the risk of mortality and pulmonary infection, and have a high hematoma evacuation rate, suggesting that it might be an optimal surgical treatment.FundingNational Natural Science Foundation of China, National Science Fund for Distinguished Young Scholars, Fundamental Research Funds for the Central Public Welfare Research Institutes, and 1·3·5 project for disciplines of excellence, West China Hospital, Sichuan University.

Dataset Information

Absolute risk and predictors of the growth of acute spontaneous intracerebral haemorrhage: a systematic review and meta-analysis of individual patient data.

Background

Methods

Findings

Interpretation

Funding

Publications

Absolute risk and predictors of the growth of acute spontaneous intracerebral haemorrhage: a systematic review and meta-analysis of individual patient data.

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