Dataset Information

Predicting El Nino Beyond 1-year Lead: Effect of the Western Hemisphere Warm Pool.

ABSTRACT: Due to the profound impact of El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) on global climate and weather, extensive research has been devoted to its prediction. However, prediction accuracy based on observation is still insufficient and largely limited to less than one year of lead time. In this study, we demonstrate the possibility that anomalous sea surface temperature (SST) warming (cooling) in the Western Hemisphere Warm Pool (WHWP, a.k.a. Atlantic Warm Pool) near the Intra-Americas Sea (IAS), which is the second largest warm pool on the planet, contributes to the initiation of La Niña (El Niño) with a 17-month lag time. SST anomalies in WHWP in late boreal summer contribute significantly to the emergence of the Pacific meridional mode (PMM) via interaction between the ocean and atmosphere over the subtropical North Pacific during the subsequent winter and spring. Near-equatorial surface wind anomalies associated with the PMM can further trigger ENSO through the dynamics of the equatorial oceanic waves. Thus, this observational analysis presents a clear step-by-step explanation about the influence of WHWP on ENSO development with a 17-month lead time.

SUBMITTER: Park JH

PROVIDER: S-EPMC6175942 | biostudies-literature | 2018 Oct

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Predicting El Niño Beyond 1-year Lead: Effect of the Western Hemisphere Warm Pool.

Park Jae-Heung JH Kug Jong-Seong JS Li Tim T Behera Swadhin K SK

Scientific reports 20181008 1

Due to the profound impact of El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) on global climate and weather, extensive research has been devoted to its prediction. However, prediction accuracy based on observation is still insufficient and largely limited to less than one year of lead time. In this study, we demonstrate the possibility that anomalous sea surface temperature (SST) warming (cooling) in the Western Hemisphere Warm Pool (WHWP, a.k.a. Atlantic Warm Pool) near the Intra-Americas Sea (IAS), which ...[more]

PMID: 30297822

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Project description:Climate change is expected to exacerbate upwelling intensity and natural acidification in Eastern Boundaries Upwelling Systems (EBUS). Conducted between January-September 2015 in a nearshore site of the northern Humboldt Current System directly exposed to year-round upwelling episodes, this study was aimed at assessing the relationship between upwelling mediated pH-changes and functional traits of the numerically dominant planktonic copepod-grazer Acartia tonsa (Copepoda). Environmental temperature, salinity, oxygen, pH, alkalinity, chlorophyll-a (Chl), copepod adult size, egg production (EP), and egg size and growth were assessed through 28 random oceanographic surveys. Agglomerative clustering and multidimensional scaling identified three main di-similitude nodes within temporal variability of abiotic and biotic variables: A) "upwelling", B) "non-upwelling", and C) "warm-acid" conditions. Nodes A and B represented typical features within the upwelling phenology, characterized by the transition from low temperature, oxygen, pH and Chl during upwelling to higher levels during non-upwelling conditions. However, well-oxygenated, saline and "warm-acid" node C seemed to be atypical for local climatology, suggesting the occurrence of a low frequency oceanographic perturbation. Multivariate (LDA and ANCOVA) analyses revealed upwelling through temperature, oxygen and pH were the main factors affecting variations in adult size and EP, and highlighted growth rates were significantly lower under node C. Likely buffering upwelling pH-reductions, phytoplankton biomass maintained copepod reproduction despite prevailing low temperature, oxygen and pH levels in the upwelling setting. Helping to better explain why this species is among the most recurrent ones in these variable yet productive upwelling areas, current findings also provide opportune cues on plankton responses under warm-acid conditions, which are expected to occur in productive EBUS as a consequence of climate perturbations.

Dataset Information

Predicting El Nino Beyond 1-year Lead: Effect of the Western Hemisphere Warm Pool.

Publications

Predicting El Niño Beyond 1-year Lead: Effect of the Western Hemisphere Warm Pool.

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