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Impact of the astronomical lunar 18.6-yr tidal cycle on El-Nino and Southern Oscillation.

ABSTRACT: Even though El-Niño and Southern Oscillation (ENSO) has a tremendous impact on global climate and society, its long-term forecast remains difficult. In this study, we discovered a statistically significant relationship between ENSO timing and the 18.6-year period lunar tidal cycle in the mature-phase (December-February) ENSO time-series during 1867-2015 and extending back to 1706 with proxy data. It was found that El-Niño tended to occur in the 1st, 10th, and 13th years after the maximum diurnal tide in the 18.6-yr cycle, and La-Niña tended to occur in the 3rd, 12th, and 16th years. These tendencies were also confirmed by corresponding sea-surface temperature (SST) and sea-level pressure (SLP) distributions; particularly Pacific SST and SLP spatial patterns in the third La-Niña and the tenth El-Niño year well resemble those of Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO). These findings contribute to understanding and forecasting long-term ENSO variability.

SUBMITTER: Yasuda I

PROVIDER: S-EPMC6185980 | biostudies-literature | 2018 Oct

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Impact of the astronomical lunar 18.6-yr tidal cycle on El-Niño and Southern Oscillation.

Yasuda Ichiro I

Scientific reports 20181012 1

Even though El-Niño and Southern Oscillation (ENSO) has a tremendous impact on global climate and society, its long-term forecast remains difficult. In this study, we discovered a statistically significant relationship between ENSO timing and the 18.6-year period lunar tidal cycle in the mature-phase (December-February) ENSO time-series during 1867-2015 and extending back to 1706 with proxy data. It was found that El-Niño tended to occur in the 1st, 10th, and 13th years after the maximum diurnal ...[more]

PMID: 30315185

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