Evaluating the risk for Usutu virus circulation in Europe: comparison of environmental niche models and epidemiological models.

ABSTRACT:

Background

Usutu virus (USUV) is a mosquito-borne flavivirus, reported in many countries of Africa and Europe, with an increasing spatial distribution and host range. Recent outbreaks leading to regional declines of European common blackbird (Turdus merula) populations and a rising number of human cases emphasize the need for increased awareness and spatial risk assessment.

Methods

Modelling approaches in ecology and epidemiology differ substantially in their algorithms, potentially resulting in diverging model outputs. Therefore, we implemented a parallel approach incorporating two commonly applied modelling techniques: (1) Maxent, a correlation-based environmental niche model and (2) a mechanistic epidemiological susceptible-exposed-infected-removed (SEIR) model. Across Eu

SUBMITTER: Cheng Y 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC6186058 | biostudies-literature | 2018 Oct

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature