Seasonal difference in temporal transferability of an ecological model: near-term predictions of lemming outbreak abundances.

ABSTRACT: Ecological models have been criticized for a lack of validation of their temporal transferability. Here we answer this call by investigating the temporal transferability of a dynamic state-space model developed to estimate season-dependent biotic and climatic predictors of spatial variability in outbreak abundance of the Norwegian lemming. Modelled summer and winter dynamics parametrized by spatial trapping data from one cyclic outbreak were validated with data from a subsequent outbreak. There was a distinct difference in model transferability between seasons. Summer dynamics had good temporal transferability, displaying ecological models' potential to be temporally transferable. However, the winter dynamics transferred poorly. This discrepancy is likely due to a temporal inconsistency in

SUBMITTER: Kleiven EF 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC6189055 | biostudies-literature | 2018 Oct

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature