Extrapolation of Survival Curves from Cancer Trials Using External Information.

ABSTRACT:

Background

Estimates of life expectancy are a key input to cost-effectiveness analysis (CEA) models for cancer treatments. Due to the limited follow-up in Randomized Controlled Trials (RCTs), parametric models are frequently used to extrapolate survival outcomes beyond the RCT period. However, different parametric models that fit the RCT data equally well may generate highly divergent predictions of treatment-related gain in life expectancy. Here, we investigate the use of information external to the RCT data to inform model choice and estimation of life expectancy.

Methods

We used Bayesian multi-parameter evidence synthesis to combine the RCT data with external information on general population survival, conditional survival from cancer registry databases, and expert opinio

SUBMITTER: Guyot P 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC6190619 | biostudies-literature | 2017 May

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature