Assessing the Risk of Vaccine-derived Outbreaks After Reintroduction of Oral Poliovirus Vaccine in Postcessation Settings.

ABSTRACT:

Background

The Polio Eradication and Endgame Strategic Plan 2013-2018 calls for the gradual withdrawal of oral poliovirus vaccine (OPV) from routine immunization. We aimed to quantify the transmission potential of Sabin strains from OPV when it is reintroduced, accidentally or deliberately, in a community vaccinated with inactivated poliovirus vaccine alone.

Methods

We built an individual-based stochastic epidemiological model that allows independent spread of 3 Sabin serotypes and differential transmission rates within versus between households. Model parameters were estimated by fitting to data from a prospective cohort in Mexico. We calculated the effective reproductive number for the Mexico cohort and simulated scenarios of Sabin strain resurgence under postcessation con

SUBMITTER: Fu R 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC6206116 | biostudies-literature | 2018 Oct

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature