A Bayesian approach to synthesize estimates of the size of hidden populations: the Anchored Multiplier.

ABSTRACT:

Background

The multiplier method is one of the most frequently used population size estimation (PSE) methods for key populations, yet estimates from this method are often inconsistent with each other, other PSE methods and local knowledge. We developed a novel Bayesian approach, the 'Anchored Multiplier', which synthesizes estimates from multipliers coupled to an a priori estimate to arrive at a single consensus estimate and credible range.

Methods

Data for size estimation were collected from three cross-sectional bio-behavioural surveillance studies of people who inject drugs (PWID) in San Francisco, CA, USA (2005, 2009 and 2012). We demonstrate the application of the Anchored Multiplier and a Variance Adjusted-Anchored Multiplier using PSE produced by multipliers in the th

SUBMITTER: Wesson PD 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC6208278 | biostudies-literature | 2018 Oct

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature