Contrasting streamflow regimes induced by melting glaciers across the Tien Shan - Pamir - North Karakoram.

ABSTRACT: The glacierized Tien Shan - Pamir - Karakoram mountain complex supplies water to about 42 million people. Yet, the knowledge about future glacial runoff in response to future climate is limited. Here, we address this issue using a hydrological model, that includes the three components of glacial runoff: ice melt, snowmelt and the runoff of rainfall over ice. The model is forced by climate projections of the CMIP5 models. We find that the three components exhibit different long-term trajectories, sometimes opposite in sign to the long-term trend in glacier impacts. For the eastern slope basins, streamflow is projected to increase by 28% (ranging from 9 to 44%, from climate model variation (CMV)) by the late 21^st century, under the representative concentration pathway, RCP8.5. Ice

SUBMITTER: Luo Y 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC6220244 | biostudies-literature | 2018 Nov

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature