Seasonal and interannual risks of dengue introduction from South-East Asia into China, 2005-2015.

ABSTRACT: Due to worldwide increased human mobility, air-transportation data and mathematical models have been widely used to measure risks of global dispersal of pathogens. However, the seasonal and interannual risks of pathogens importation and onward transmission from endemic countries have rarely been quantified and validated. We constructed a modelling framework, integrating air travel, epidemiological, demographical, entomological and meteorological data, to measure the seasonal probability of dengue introduction from endemic countries. This framework has been applied retrospectively to elucidate spatiotemporal patterns and increasing seasonal risk of dengue importation from South-East Asia into China via air travel in multiple populations, Chinese travelers and local residents, over a decade

SUBMITTER: Lai S 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC6248995 | biostudies-literature | 2018 Nov

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature