90-90-90 by 2020? Estimation and projection of the adult HIV epidemic and ART programme in Zimbabwe - 2017 to 2020.

ABSTRACT:

Introduction

The 90-90-90 targets set by the United Nations aspire to 73% of people living with HIV (PLHIV) being virally suppressed by 2020. Using the HIV Synthesis Model, we aim to mimic the epidemic in Zimbabwe and make projections to assess whether Zimbabwe is on track to meet the 90-90-90 targets and assess whether recently proposed UNAIDS HIV transition metrics are likely to be met.

Methods

We used an approximate Bayesian computation approach to identify model parameter values which result in model outputs consistent with observed data, evaluated using a calibration score. These parameter values were then used to make projections to 2020 to compare with the 90-90-90 targets and other key indicators. We also calculated HIV transition metrics proposed by UNAIDS (percenta

SUBMITTER: Bansi-Matharu L 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC6250855 | biostudies-literature | 2018 Nov

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature