The importance of local epidemic conditions in monitoring progress towards HIV epidemic control in Kenya: a modelling study.

ABSTRACT:

Introduction

Setting and monitoring progress towards targets for HIV control is critical in ensuring responsive programmes. Here, we explore how to apply targets for reduction in HIV incidence to local settings and which indicators give the strongest signal of a change in incidence in the population and are therefore most important to monitor.

Methods

We use location-specific HIV transmission models, tailored to the epidemics in the counties and major cities in Kenya, to project a wide range of plausible future epidemic trajectories through varying behaviours, treatment coverage and prevention interventions. We look at the change in incidence across modelled scenarios in each location between 2015 and 2030 to inform local target setting. We also simulate the measurement of a

SUBMITTER: Anderson SJ 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC6260921 | biostudies-literature | 2018 Nov

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature