Niche squeeze induced by climate change of the cold-tolerant subtropical montane Podocarpus parlatorei.

ABSTRACT: Under changing climates, the persistence of montane subtropical taxa may be threatened as suitable habitats decrease with elevation. We developed future environmental niche models (ENNMs) for Podocarpus parlatorei, the only conifer from southern Yungas in South America, and projected it onto two greenhouse gas concentration scenarios based on 13 global climate models for the years 2050 and 2070. Modelling identified that P. parlatorei is sensitive and restricted to a relatively narrow range of both warm season temperature and precipitation. By the mid-late twenty-first century areas of high suitability for P. parlatorei will not migrate but overall suitability will become substantially reduced across its whole range and surrounding areas. Despite extensive areas in hig

SUBMITTER: Quiroga MP 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC6281919 | biostudies-literature | 2018 Nov

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature