Predicting combined effects of land use and climate change on river and stream salinity.

ABSTRACT: Agricultural, industrial and urban development have all contributed to increased salinity in streams and rivers, but the likely effects of future development and climate change are unknown. I developed two empirical models to estimate how these combined effects might affect salinity by the end of this century (measured as electrical conductivity, EC). The first model predicts natural background from static (e.g. geology and soils) and dynamic (i.e. climate and vegetation) environmental factors and explained 78% of the variation in EC. I then compared the estimated background EC with current measurements at 2001 sites chosen probabilistically from all conterminous USA streams. EC was more than 50% greater at 34% of these sites. The second model predicts deviation of EC from background as a

SUBMITTER: Olson JR 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC6283963 | biostudies-literature | 2018 Dec

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature