On the contribution of internal variability and external forcing factors to the Cooling trend over the Humid Subtropical Indo-Gangetic Plain in India.

ABSTRACT: The summer surface air temperature (SAT) in the Humid Subtropical Climate Zone in India, exhibits a significant cooling trend (~-3 °C/40 yrs.) in CRU observational data during 1961-2000. Here we investigate the contribution of internal and external factors, which are driving this cooling trend. Using the Community Earth System Model-Large Ensemble (CESM-LE), we analyze the historical climate change in presence of internal climate variability. Most of the model ensemble members could reproduce this amplified cooling (<-3 °C) as shown from CRU data. Further analyses reveals that external forcing displays a strong cooling effect over this region, while internal variability displays mixed cooling (in most cases) and warming signals. The signal to noise ratio i.e. the ratio of external forcings

SUBMITTER: Nath R 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC6303293 | biostudies-literature | 2018 Dec

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature