Projecting ESRD Incidence and Prevalence in the United States through 2030.

ABSTRACT: BACKGROUND:Population rates of obesity, hypertension, diabetes, age, and race can be used in simulation models to develop projections of ESRD incidence and prevalence. Such projections can inform long-range planning for ESRD resources needs. METHODS:We used an open compartmental simulation model to estimate the incidence and prevalence of ESRD in the United States through 2030 on the basis of wide-ranging projections of population obesity and ESRD death rates. Population trends in age, race, hypertension, and diabetes were on the basis of data from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention's National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey and the US Census. RESULTS:The increase in ESRD incidence rates within age and race groups has leveled off and/or declined in recent years, but our

SUBMITTER: McCullough KP 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC6317596 | biostudies-literature | 2019 Jan

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature