Relatedness of the incidence decay with exponential adjustment (IDEA) model, "Farr's law" and SIR compartmental difference equation models.

ABSTRACT: Mathematical models are often regarded as recent innovations in the description and analysis of infectious disease outbreaks and epidemics, but simple mathematical expressions have been in use for projection of epidemic trajectories for more than a century. We recently introduced a single equation model (the incidence decay with exponential adjustment, or IDEA model) that can be used for short-term epidemiological forecasting. In the mid-19th century, Dr. William Farr made the observation that epidemic events rise and fall in a roughly symmetrical pattern that can be approximated by a bell-shaped curve. He noticed that this time-evolution behavior could be captured by a single mathematical formula ("Farr's law") that could be used for epidemic forecasting. We show here that the IDEA model

SUBMITTER: Santillana M 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC6326218 | biostudies-literature | 2018

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature