Use of routine HIV testing data for early detection of emerging HIV epidemics in high-risk subpopulations: A concept demonstration study.

ABSTRACT:

Introduction

HIV epidemics in hard-to-reach high-risk subpopulations are often discovered years after epidemic emergence in settings with poor surveillance infrastructure. Using hypothesis-generation modeling, we aimed to investigate and demonstrate the concept of using routine HIV testing data to identify and characterize hidden epidemics in high-risk subpopulations. We also compared this approach to surveillance based on AIDS case notifications.

Methods

A deterministic mathematical model was developed to simulate an emerging HIV epidemic in a high-risk subpopulation. A stochastic Monte Carlo simulation was implemented on the total population to simulate the sampling process of generating routine HIV testing data. Epidemiological measures were estimated on the simulated epi

SUBMITTER: Ayoub HH 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC6326224 | biostudies-literature | 2018

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature