Accuracy gains from conservative forecasting: Tests using variations of 19 econometric models to predict 154 elections in 10 countries.

ABSTRACT:

Problem

Do conservative econometric models that comply with the Golden Rule of Forecasting provide more accurate forecasts?

Methods

To test the effects of forecast accuracy, we applied three evidence-based guidelines to 19 published regression models used for forecasting 154 elections in Australia, Canada, Italy, Japan, Netherlands, Portugal, Spain, Turkey, U.K., and the U.S. The guidelines direct forecasters using causal models to be conservative to account for uncertainty by (I) modifying effect estimates to reflect uncertainty either by damping coefficients towards no effect or equalizing coefficients, (II) combining forecasts from diverse models, and (III) incorporating more knowledge by including more variables with known important effects.

Findings

Modifying the

SUBMITTER: Graefe A 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC6328130 | biostudies-literature | 2019

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature