Quantifying uncertainties of sandy shoreline change projections as sea level rises.

ABSTRACT: Sandy shorelines are constantly evolving, threatening frequently human assets such as buildings or transport infrastructure. In these environments, sea-level rise will exacerbate coastal erosion to an amount which remains uncertain. Sandy shoreline change projections inherit the uncertainties of future mean sea-level changes, of vertical ground motions, and of other natural and anthropogenic processes affecting shoreline change variability and trends. Furthermore, the erosive impact of sea-level rise itself can be quantified using two fundamentally different models. Here, we show that this latter source of uncertainty, which has been little quantified so far, can account for 20 to 40% of the variance of shoreline projections by 2100 and beyond. This is demonstrated for four contrasting san

SUBMITTER: Le Cozannet G 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC6328552 | biostudies-literature | 2019 Jan

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature