Estimation in emerging epidemics: biases and remedies.

ABSTRACT: When analysing new emerging infectious disease outbreaks, one typically has observational data over a limited period of time and several parameters to estimate, such as growth rate, the basic reproduction number R₀, the case fatality rate and distributions of serial intervals, generation times, latency and incubation times and times between onset of symptoms, notification, death and recovery/discharge. These parameters form the basis for predicting a future outbreak, planning preventive measures and monitoring the progress of the disease outbreak. We study inference problems during the emerging phase of an outbreak, and point out potential sources of bias, with emphasis on: contact tracing backwards in time, replacing generation times by serial intervals, multiple potential infe

SUBMITTER: Britton T 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC6364646 | biostudies-literature | 2019 Jan

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature