Even a good influenza forecasting model can benefit from internet-based nowcasts, but those benefits are limited.

ABSTRACT: The ability to produce timely and accurate flu forecasts in the United States can significantly impact public health. Augmenting forecasts with internet data has shown promise for improving forecast accuracy and timeliness in controlled settings, but results in practice are less convincing, as models augmented with internet data have not consistently outperformed models without internet data. In this paper, we perform a controlled experiment, taking into account data backfill, to improve clarity on the benefits and limitations of augmenting an already good flu forecasting model with internet-based nowcasts. Our results show that a good flu forecasting model can benefit from the augmentation of internet-based nowcasts in practice for all considered public health-relevant forecasting targets

SUBMITTER: Osthus D 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC6373968 | biostudies-literature | 2019 Feb

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature