A decision-support framework to optimize border control for global outbreak mitigation.

ABSTRACT: The introduction and spread of emerging infectious diseases is increasing in both prevalence and scale. Whether naturally, accidentally or maliciously introduced, the substantial uncertainty surrounding the emergence of novel viruses, specifically where they may come from and how they will spread, demands robust and quantifiably validated outbreak control policies that can be implemented in real time. This work presents a novel mathematical modeling framework that integrates both outbreak dynamics and outbreak control into a decision support tool for mitigating infectious disease pandemics that spread through passenger air travel. An ensemble of border control strategies that exploit properties of the air traffic network structure and expected outbreak behavior are proposed. A stochastic m

SUBMITTER: Zlojutro A 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC6379393 | biostudies-literature | 2019 Feb

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature