A maximum curvature method for estimating epidemic onset of seasonal influenza in Japan.

ABSTRACT:

Background

Detecting the onset of influenza epidemic is important for epidemiological surveillance and for investigating the factors driving spatiotemporal transmission patterns. Most approaches define the epidemic onset based on thresholds, which use subjective criteria and are specific to individual surveillance systems.

Methods

We applied the empirical threshold method (ETM), together with two non-thresholding methods, including the maximum curvature method (MCM) that we proposed and the segmented regression method (SRM), to determine onsets of influenza epidemics in each prefecture of Japan, using sentinel surveillance data of influenza-like illness (ILI) from 2012/2013 through 2017/2018. Performance of the MCM and SRM was evaluated, in terms of epidemic onset, end, and

SUBMITTER: Cai J 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC6383251 | biostudies-literature | 2019 Feb

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature