Ocean precursors to the extreme Atlantic 2017 hurricane season.

ABSTRACT: Active Atlantic hurricane seasons are favoured by positive precursor sea surface temperature anomalies (SSTA) in the main development region (MDR, 10-20°N, 20-80°W). Here, we identify a different driving mechanism for these anomalies in 2017 (most costly season on record) compared to the recent active 2005 and 2010 seasons. In 2005 and 2010, a weakened Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation is the primary driver of positive SSTA. However, in 2017, reduced wind-driven cold water upwelling and weaker surface net heat loss in the north-eastern MDR were the main drivers. Our results are the first to show that air-sea heat flux and wind stress related processes are important in generating precursor positive SSTAs and that these processes were active pre-determinants of the 2017 season seve

SUBMITTER: Hallam S 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC6384944 | biostudies-literature | 2019 Feb

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature