Eigenvalues of the covariance matrix as early warning signals for critical transitions in ecological systems.

ABSTRACT: Many ecological systems are subject critical transitions, which are abrupt changes to contrasting states triggered by small changes in some key component of the system. Temporal early warning signals such as the variance of a time series, and spatial early warning signals such as the spatial correlation in a snapshot of the system's state, have been proposed to forecast critical transitions. However, temporal early warning signals do not take the spatial pattern into account, and past spatial indicators only examine one snapshot at a time. In this study, we propose the use of eigenvalues of the covariance matrix of multiple time series as early warning signals. We first show theoretically why these indicators may increase as the system moves closer to the critical transition. Then, we appl

SUBMITTER: Chen S 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC6385210 | biostudies-literature | 2019 Feb

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature