The Limits of Earthquake Early Warning Accuracy and Best Alerting Strategy.

ABSTRACT: We explore how accurate earthquake early warning (EEW) can be, given our limited ability to forecast expected shaking even if the earthquake source is known. Because of the strong variability of ground motion metrics, such as peak ground acceleration (PGA) and peak ground velocity (PGV), we find that correct alerts (i.e., alerts that accurately estimate the ground motion will be above a predetermined damage threshold) are not expected to be the most common EEW outcome even when the earthquake magnitude and location are accurately determined. Infrequently, ground motion variability results in a user receiving a false alert because the ground motion turned out to be significantly smaller than the system expected. More commonly, users will experience missed alerts when the system does not iss

SUBMITTER: Minson SE 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC6385233 | biostudies-literature | 2019 Feb

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature