Methods for calculating credible intervals for ratios of beta distributions with application to relative risks of death during the second plague pandemic.

ABSTRACT: Employing historical records we are able to estimate the risk of premature death during the second plague pandemic, and identify the Black Death and pestis secunda epidemics. We show a novel method of calculating Bayesian credible intervals for a ratio of beta distributed random variables and use this to quantify uncertainty of relative risk estimates for these two epidemics which we consider in a 2 × 2 contingency table framework.

SUBMITTER: Bekker-Nielsen Dunbar M 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC6386284 | biostudies-literature | 2019

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature