Modelling and Analyzing Virus Mutation Dynamics of Chikungunya Outbreaks.

ABSTRACT: Chikungunya fever, caused by chikungunya virus (CHIKV) and transmitted to humans by infected Aedes mosquitoes, has posed a global threat in several countries in 2015. Recent outbreaks in La Réunion, Italy and China are related with a new variant of CHIKV with shorter extrinsic incubation period in contaminated mosquitoes, but the role of this new variant on the spread of chikungunya fever is unclear. We develop a mathematical model that incorporates the virus mutation dynamics in the transmission of CHIKV among mosquitoes and humans. Our numerical simulations show that a substantial virus mutation rate combined with high virus transmission probabilities from mosquito to human, could result in sustainable chikungunya fever outbreaks. Further, we apply Markov Chain Monte Carlo sampling metho

SUBMITTER: Feng X 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC6393467 | biostudies-literature | 2019 Feb

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature