Finding the optimal mix of smoking initiation and cessation interventions to reduce smoking prevalence.

ABSTRACT: There are more than one billion smokers globally according to the World Health Organization (WHO) report in 2017. Every year tobacco use causes nearly 6 million deaths worldwide. To deal with the smoking epidemic, society needs to invest resources efficiently. In this paper we introduce an optimal control model to determine the optimal mix of smoking initiation and cessation interventions to reduce smoking. We construct the model to reach a smoking prevalence target within a specific time horizon while minimizing cost. Our performance measure captures the cost of policy implementation over time, adjusting for inflation and social discounting. The analytical solutions to the model are presented in forms of ordinary differential equations (ODE). We then conduct several numerical simulations

SUBMITTER: Sun R 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC6396906 | biostudies-literature | 2019

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature