Exploring Evolutionary and Transmission Dynamics of HIV Epidemic in Serbia: Bridging Socio-Demographic With Phylogenetic Approach.

ABSTRACT: Previous molecular studies of Serbian HIV epidemic identified the dominance of subtype B and presence of clusters related HIV-1 transmission, in particular among men who have sex with men (MSM). In order to get a deeper understanding of the complexities of HIV sub-epidemics in Serbia, epidemic trends, temporal origin and phylodynamic characteristics in general population and subpopulations were analyzed by means of mathematical modeling, phylogenetic analysis and latent class analysis (LCA). Fitting of the logistic curve of trends for a cumulative annual number of new HIV cases in 1984-2016, in general population and MSM transmission group, was performed. Both datasets fitted the logistic growth model, showing the early exponential phase of the growth curve. According to the suggested mode

SUBMITTER: Jovanovic L 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC6397891 | biostudies-literature | 2019

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature