Dataset Information

Event-to-event intensification of the hydrologic cycle from 1.5 °C to a 2 °C warmer world.

ABSTRACT: The Paris agreement was adopted to hold the global average temperature increase to well below 2 °C and pursue efforts to limit it to 1.5 °C. Here, we investigate the event-to-event hydroclimatic intensity, where an event is a pair of adjacent wet and dry spells, under future warming scenarios. According to a set of targeted multi-model large ensemble experiments, event-wise intensification will significantly increase globally for an additional 0.5 °C warming beyond 1.5 °C. In high latitudinal regions of the North American continent and Eurasia, this intensification is likely to involve overwhelming increases in wet spell intensity. Western and Eastern North America will likely experience more intense wet spells with negligible changes of dry spells. For the Mediterranean region, enhancement of dry spells seems to be dominating compared to the decrease in wet spell strength, and this will lead to an overall event-wise intensification. Furthermore, the extreme intensification could be 10 times stronger than the mean intensification. The high damage potential of such drastic changes between flood and drought conditions poses a major challenge to adaptation, and the findings suggest that risks could be substantially reduced by achieving a 1.5 °C target.

SUBMITTER: Madakumbura GD

PROVIDER: S-EPMC6400949 | biostudies-literature | 2019 Mar

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Event-to-event intensification of the hydrologic cycle from 1.5 °C to a 2 °C warmer world.

Madakumbura Gavin D GD Kim Hyungjun H Utsumi Nobuyuki N Shiogama Hideo H Fischer Erich M EM Seland Øyvind Ø Scinocca John F JF Mitchell Daniel M DM Hirabayashi Yukiko Y Oki Taikan T

Scientific reports 20190305 1

The Paris agreement was adopted to hold the global average temperature increase to well below 2 °C and pursue efforts to limit it to 1.5 °C. Here, we investigate the event-to-event hydroclimatic intensity, where an event is a pair of adjacent wet and dry spells, under future warming scenarios. According to a set of targeted multi-model large ensemble experiments, event-wise intensification will significantly increase globally for an additional 0.5 °C warming beyond 1.5 °C. In high latitudinal re ...[more]

PMID: 30837575

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Project description:BackgroundStrawberries are a common crop whose yield success depends on the availability of pollinators. Invasive alien plants, such as Impatiens glandulifera and I. parviflora, are also attractive for bees and hoverflies, respectively, and occur in close proximity to strawberry cultivation areas. The aim of the study was to test whether alien plants may decrease pollination of strawberry cultivation. However, even if the pollinators are abundant, efficiency of their pollination may decrease as a result of revisits of flowers that were already probed. It is addressed by pollinators by scent marking. Moreover, such revisits can be determined by nectar replenishment, which may occur rapidly in nectar-rich flowers. We studied revisits to I. glandulifera by bumblebees and defined the factors that influence the probability of revisits (air temperature; pollinator species; family caste and size; flower area; sun radiation; and time of day).ResultsWe found that the two alien species decreased the number of pollinators visiting strawberries. Apoidea, Bombini and Syrphidae significantly decreased on Fragaria × ananassa when alien Impatiens were present. We also revealed the influence of increasing air temperature on bumblebee foraging, which was particularly significant for female workers. At very high temperatures (> 37°C), bumblebee males revisited probed flowers less often than female workers.ConclusionsOur results demonstrate that in experimental conditions attractive alien species decrease pollination of strawberries, which may negatively affect production of this crop. Although the results have not been verified in real-life strawberry fields yet, we recommend that alien plant species that share the same pollinators and occur in close proximity of strawberries are controlled. Moreover, we found that revisits of probed flowers may weaken feeding efficiency of bumblebees. If revisits are not induced by nectar replenishment, then global warming may pose a serious threat to the survival of colonies, which may have consequences also for the plants that attract them, e.g., for strawberries.

Dataset Information

Event-to-event intensification of the hydrologic cycle from 1.5 °C to a 2 °C warmer world.

Publications

Event-to-event intensification of the hydrologic cycle from 1.5 °C to a 2 °C warmer world.

Similar Datasets

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