Modelling the transmission dynamics of Campylobacter in Ontario, Canada, assuming house flies, Musca domestica, are a mechanical vector of disease transmission.

ABSTRACT: Campylobacter's complicated dynamics and multiple transmission routes have made it difficult to describe using a mathematical framework. Vector-borne disease transmission has been proposed as a potential transmission route of Campylobacter with house flies acting as a mechanical vector. This study aimed to (i) determine if a basic SIR compartment model that included flies as a mechanical vector and incorporated a seasonally forced environment compartment could be used to capture the observed disease dynamics in Ontario, Canada, and (ii) use this model to determine potential changes to campylobacteriosis incidence using predicted changes to fly population size and fly activity under multiple climate change scenarios. The model was fit to 1 year of data and validated aga

SUBMITTER: Cousins M 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC6408420 | biostudies-literature | 2019 Feb

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature