Benchmark decadal forecast skill for terrestrial water storage estimated by an elasticity framework.

ABSTRACT: A reliable decadal prediction of terrestrial water storage (TWS) is critical for a sustainable management of freshwater resources and infrastructures. However, the dependence of TWS forecast skill on the accuracy of initial hydrological conditions and decadal climate forecasts is not clear, and the baseline skill remains unknown. Here we use decadal climate hindcasts and perform hydrological ensemble simulations to estimate a benchmark decadal forecast skill for TWS over global major river basins with an elasticity framework that considers varying skill of initial conditions and climate forecasts. The initial condition skill elasticity is higher than climate forecast skill elasticity over many river basins at 1-4 years lead, suggesting the dominance of initial conditions at short leads. Ho

SUBMITTER: Zhu E 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC6420621 | biostudies-literature | 2019 Mar

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature