Prediction of conversion to multiple sclerosis using the 2017 McDonald and 2016 MAGNIMS criteria in patients with clinically isolated syndrome: a retrospective single-centre study.
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ABSTRACT:
SUBMITTER: Miclea A
PROVIDER: S-EPMC6444400 | biostudies-literature | 2019
REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature
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Prediction of conversion to multiple sclerosis using the 2017 McDonald and 2016 MAGNIMS criteria in patients with clinically isolated syndrome: a retrospective single-centre study.
Miclea Andrei A Salmen Anke A Wiest Roland R Zoehner Greta G Wagner Franca F Hoepner Andreas A Schrewe Lisa L Evangelopoulos Maria Eleftheria ME Kamber Nicole N Chan Andrew A Hoepner Robert R
Therapeutic advances in neurological disorders 20190329
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Project description:ImportanceIn 2017, the International Panel on Diagnosis of Multiple Sclerosis revised the McDonald 2010 criteria for the diagnosis of multiple sclerosis (MS). The new criteria are easier to apply and could lead to more and earlier diagnoses. It is important to validate these criteria globally for their accuracy in clinical practice.ObjectiveTo evaluate the diagnostic accuracy of the 2017 criteria vs the 2010 criteria in prediction of clinically definite MS in patients with a typical clinically isolated syndrome (CIS).Design, setting and patientsA total of 251 patients at Erasmus MC, Rotterdam, the Netherlands, in collaboration with several regional hospitals, fulfilled the inclusion criteria. Thirteen patients received another diagnosis early in the diagnostic process and therefore were excluded from the analyses. Nine patients with CIS declined to participate in the study. This left 229 patients who were included between March 2006 and August 2016 in this prospective CIS cohort. Patients underwent a baseline magnetic resonance imaging scan within 3 months after onset of symptoms and, if clinically required, a lumbar puncture was performed. Data were analyzed between December 2017 and January 2018.Main outcomes and measuresSensitivity, specificity, accuracy, and positive and negative predictive value were calculated after 1, 3, and 5 years for the 2017 vs the 2010 criteria.ResultsAmong the 229 patients with CIS, 167 were women (73%), and the mean (SD) age was 33.5 (8.2) years. One hundred thirteen patients (49%) were diagnosed as having CDMS during a mean (SD) follow-up time of 65.3 (30.9) months. Sensitivity for the 2017 criteria was higher than for the 2010 criteria (68%; 95% CI, 57%-77% vs 36%; 95% CI, 27%-47%; P < .001), but specificity was lower (61%; 95% CI, 50%-71% vs 85%; 95% CI, 76%-92%; P < .001). Using the 2017 criteria, more MS diagnoses could be made at baseline (n = 97 [54%]; 95% CI, 47%-61% vs n = 46 [26%]; 95% CI, 20%-32%; P < .001). In the group with at least 5 years of follow-up, 33% of patients who were diagnosed as having MS using the 2017 criteria did not experience a second attack during follow-up vs 23% when using the 2010 criteria.Conclusions and relevanceThe 2017 revised McDonald criteria are associated with greater sensitivity but less specificity for a second attack than the previous 2010 criteria. The tradeoff is that it leads to a higher number of MS diagnoses in patients with a less active disease course.
| S-EPMC6248116 | biostudies-literature
Project description:BackgroundHispanic people compared to White people with multiple sclerosis (MS) are two times more likely to present with optic neuritis (ON). ON in dissemination in space (DIS) after a single attack is not part of the current McDonald 2017 criteria.ObjectiveTo evaluate if adding ON in DIS (ON-modified criteria) improves the performance of the McDonald 2017 criteria in the diagnosis of MS after a single attack of ON.MethodsRetrospective study of 102 patients of Hispanic background. Cases were reviewed between 2017 and 2021. Clinical ON was reported for 35 cases. ON in DIS was verified for 28 patients via MRI, optical coherence tomography, and/or visual evoked potential. We investigated the performance of the McDonald 2017 criteria and ON-modified criteria and calculated sensitivity, specificity, positive and negative predictive values, and accuracy.ResultsThe ON-modified criteria significantly improved the performance of the McDonald 2017 criteria (p = 0.003) and identified an additional nine patients. Both sensitivity and accuracy increased from 64% to 74% and 62% to 71%, respectively, while specificity remained unchanged (40% (95% confidence interval (CI): 0.10, 0.70)).ConclusionThis study provides evidence that the inclusion of ON in DIS improved the overall performance of the McDonald 2017 criteria among Hispanic people.
| S-EPMC10841903 | biostudies-literature
Project description:Optic neuritis is often an initial symptom in multiple sclerosis (MS) or clinically isolated syndrome (CIS), yet comprehensive studies using the 2017 McDonald criteria for MS are scarce. Patient records from our academic centre (2010-2018) were reviewed. Using the 2017 McDonald criteria, three groups were formed: MS optic neuritis (optic neuritis with confirmed MS), CIS optic neuritis (optic neuritis without confirmed MS) and suspected optic neuritis (sON). We compared clinical and paraclinical findings among the groups to identify predictors for CIS- or MS-optic neuritis. The study included 129 MS, 108 CIS, and 44 sON cases. The combination of visual impairment, dyschromatopsia, and retrobulbar pain was observed in 47% of MS patients, 42% of CIS patients, and 30% of sON patients. Dyschromatopsia was the strongest indicator of MS or CIS diagnosis in the backward regression model. 56% of MS patients had relative afferent pupillary defect, 61% optic nerve anomalies within magnetic resonance imaging, and 81% abnormal visual evoked potentials. Our results emphasize the challenges in diagnosing optic neuritis, as not all patients with objectively diagnosed MS exhibit the triad of typical symptoms. To address potentially missing clinical features, incorporating additional paraclinical findings is proposed.
| S-EPMC10973511 | biostudies-literature
Project description:Multiple sclerosis is an inflammatory, demyelinating, and neurodegenerative disease of the central nervous system. In most patients, the disease initiates with an episode of neurological disturbance referred to as clinically isolated syndrome, but not all patients with this syndrome develop multiple sclerosis over time, and currently, there is no clinical test that can conclusively establish whether a patient with a clinically isolated syndrome will eventually develop clinically defined multiple sclerosis. Here, we took advantage of the capabilities of targeted mass spectrometry to establish a diagnostic molecular classifier with high sensitivity and specificity able to differentiate between clinically isolated syndrome patients with a high and a low risk of developing multiple sclerosis. Based on the combination of abundances of proteins chitinase 3-like 1 and ala-β-his-dipeptidase in cerebrospinal fluid, we built a statistical model able to assign to each patient a precise probability of conversion to clinically defined multiple sclerosis. Our results are of special relevance for patients affected by multiple sclerosis as early treatment can prevent brain damage and slow down the disease progression.
| S-EPMC4762525 | biostudies-literature
Project description:Neuroanatomical pattern classification using support vector machines (SVMs) has shown promising results in classifying Multiple Sclerosis (MS) patients based on individual structural magnetic resonance images (MRI). To determine whether pattern classification using SVMs facilitates predicting conversion to clinically definite multiple sclerosis (CDMS) from clinically isolated syndrome (CIS). We used baseline MRI data from 364 patients with CIS, randomised to interferon beta-1b or placebo. Non-linear SVMs and 10-fold cross-validation were applied to predict converters/non-converters (175/189) at two years follow-up based on clinical and demographic data, lesion-specific quantitative geometric features and grey-matter-to-whole-brain volume ratios. We applied linear SVM analysis and leave-one-out cross-validation to subgroups of converters (n = 25) and non-converters (n = 44) based on cortical grey matter segmentations. Highest prediction accuracies of 70.4% (p = 8e-5) were reached with a combination of lesion-specific geometric (image-based) and demographic/clinical features. Cortical grey matter was informative for the placebo group (acc.: 64.6%, p = 0.002) but not for the interferon group. Classification based on demographic/clinical covariates only resulted in an accuracy of 56% (p = 0.05). Overall, lesion geometry was more informative in the interferon group, EDSS and sex were more important for the placebo cohort. Alongside standard demographic and clinical measures, both lesion geometry and grey matter based information can aid prediction of conversion to CDMS.
| S-EPMC6733701 | biostudies-literature
Project description:BackgroundIn White populations more than 60% of clinically isolated syndrome (CIS) convert to multiple sclerosis (MS) on a long-term follow-up; several predictors for conversion have been identified.ObjectiveThis study aimed to determine the conversion rate and the predictors of conversion from CIS to MS (McDonald 2010) among Indians. The other objective was to evaluate the diagnostic accuracy of the new McDonald 2017 criteria in prediction of a second clinical attack.MethodsClinical and demographic data of CIS cohorts were collected. Baseline investigations included cerebrospinal magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) with contrast and cerebrospinal fluid (CSF) testing for oligoclonal band (OCB). Follow-up clinical and MRI examinations were performed annually for at least 24 months.ResultsOf the 82 subjects (age range 15-58 years), 36 (43.9%) converted to MS; 31/82 (37.8%) converted in 24 months. The predictors for conversion were earlier age of onset, CSF-OCB, cerebral MRI T2 lesion count, and periventricular and juxtacortical location of lesions. Twenty-two (26.83%) CIS fulfilled the McDonald MS 2017 criteria at baseline.ConclusionIn this first prospective study of CIS in India, the risk factors for conversion are similar but the conversion rate to MS is lower than that in the western nations.
| S-EPMC6572895 | biostudies-literature
Project description:AimsTo retrospectively analyse the Bernese radiologically isolated syndrome (RIS) cohort with the goal of developing a prediction score for conversion to multiple sclerosis (MS).MethodsA total of 31 patients with RIS were identified by screening medical records of neurological patients seen at the University Hospital of Bern between 2004 and 2017 for the diagnoses 'radiologically isolated syndrome' and 'RIS' adhering to 2009 Okuda recommendations. We analysed clinical, paraclinical and magnetic resonance imaging data during a maximum follow-up period of 3 years and identified significant predictors of conversion to MS.ResultsData were available for 31 patients meeting 2009 Okuda RIS criteria. During the 3 years of follow up, 5/31 RIS patients converted to relapsing-remitting (RR) MS. In our univariate analysis, gadolinium (Gd) enhancement, brainstem and cerebellar hemisphere lesions, immune cell count and albumin concentration in cerebrospinal fluid (CSF), and anti-nuclear antibody (ANA) positivity in serum were identified as significant predictors of conversion to MS. Integrating these factors into our 'RIS-MS prediction score' enabled us to calculate a cut-off for prediction of conversion to MS within 3 years with high specificity [1.0, 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.84-1.00) and acceptable sensitivity (0.6, 95% CI 0.17-0.93)].ConclusionOur RIS-MS prediction score, if validated in an independent cohort, integrating radiological (Gd enhancement, brainstem and cerebellar hemisphere lesions) and paraclinical factors (ANA in serum, cell count and albumin in CSF) could be a useful prognostic tool for early recognition of RIS patients with a high risk of clinical progression to MS.
| S-EPMC8287642 | biostudies-literature
Project description:The Paediatric Rheumatology International Trials Organisation (PRINTO) criteria for clinically inactive disease (CID) and their proposal for glucocorticoid tapering do not consider MRI findings, despite the growing use of MRI and development of reliable MRI scoring tools. We aim to evaluate how CID correlates with MRI scores and physician decision making. We retrospectively used the Juvenile Dermatomyositis Imaging Score (JIS) to score MRIs of all children with JDM over a 10-year period. Demographic, diagnosis, treatment and core set measures data were collected. Correlation between CID and JIS was assessed as well as correlation with the physician treatment decision. There were 25 patients with 59 follow-up episodes to analyse correlation between physician treatment decision and JIS; and 50 episodes for the CID category and JIS correlation. JIS was not significantly associated with the CID category but did correlate with the physician decision. No significant association was found between clinical decision and CID category. The JIS area under the ROC curve (AUC) was 0.80 (95% CI 0.62-0.99) with a score ≥ 8 to predict an escalation. JIS sensitivity and specificity were both 78% with accuracy of 78%, compared to only 67%, 46% and 49%, respectively, for the CID criteria. Clinical criteria alone are not sufficient to assess disease activity status. Clinical decision trends correlated to MRI findings but not PRINTO CID criteria. Multi centre prospective studies are needed to replicate our findings and establish how to best use MRI as a biomarker of disease activity.
| S-EPMC9203389 | biostudies-literature
Project description:Epstein-Barr virus (EBV) infection precedes multiple sclerosis (MS) onset and plays an etiologic role in the disease, although the nature of viral involvement is poorly understood. A common early event in the course of MS is Clinically Isolated Syndrome (CIS), a neuroinflammatory demyelinating condition for which 60-80% of cases progress to relapsing-remitting MS (RRMS). To investigate possible viral pathogenesis during early disease stages, we analyzed single-cell gene and surface protein expression of CIS peripheral B cells collected longitudinally during the Immune Tolerance Network (ITN) STAyCIS Trial. CIS B cell profiles were compared to publicly available scRNA-seq data from in vitro EBV infection, other autoimmune disorders, chronic infectious diseases, and healthy controls. Analyses focused on CD19+/CD20+/CD21lo/CD11c+/T-bet+ atypical B cells (ABCs), which are expanded pathogenic effectors in MS and other autoimmune and chronic infectious diseases. CIS PBMCs contained significantly higher frequencies of ABCs than healthy adult controls by scRNA-seq and flow cytometry, establishing ABC compartment expansion as a clinical feature of CIS. An EBV-associated ABC transcriptome, including expression of CXCR3 and immune checkpoint molecules (PD-L1, PD-L2), was enriched in CIS versus controls; however, evidence of direct EBV infection within the ABC niche was infrequently observed. CIS ABCs exhibited significant enrichment of inflammatory cytokine mRNAs including CXCL8 (IL8), IL18, and VEGFA. Several of these cytokines (IL-8, VEGF) were secreted by B cells upon de novo EBV exposure. CIS outcome stratification revealed a rare yet distinctive inflammatory ABC signature significantly underrepresented in long-term non-progressors (LTNP) versus people with primary endpoint RRMS activity. Moreover, CXCR3+ ABCs increased after baseline CIS diagnosis and were significantly enriched in MS vs LTNP outcomes after controlling for age and sex. Thus, we find evidence for ABC expansion, inflammatory responses, and checkpoint that precede MS onset, possibly as a bystander response to EBV infection.
2025-05-27 | GSE267750 | GEO
Project description:Background and Objectives: Multiple sclerosis (MS) is a demyelinating disease which usually manifests as clinically isolated syndrome (CIS). Approximately 70% of patients with CIS progress to MS. Therefore, there is a pressing need to identify the most accurate predictive factors of CIS developing into MS, some of which could be a clear clinical phenotype of early MS as well as lesions in magnetic resonance imaging (MRI), pathological findings in cerebrospinal fluid (CSF) and evoked potentials (EP) tests. The problem is of outstanding importance since early MS diagnosis and treatment prevents long-term disability. The aim of our study is to analyze the factors that could influence the progression of CIS to MS. Materials and Methods: This study is a retrospective data analysis which included patients with their primary CIS diagnosis between 1st January 2015 and 1st January 2020. The prevalence and predictive value of clinical symptoms, MRI lesions, pathological CSF and EP findings were evaluated in accordance with the final diagnosis and compared between the sexes and age groups. Results: Out of 138 CIS patients, 49 (35.5%) patients progressed to MS. MS patients were more likely to have a diminished sense of vibration and proprioception (χ2 = 9.033, p = 0.003) as well as spinal cord MRI lesions (χ2 = 7.209, p = 0.007) in comparison with the non-MS group. Positive oligoclonal bands (OCBs) in CSF (χ2 = 34.859, p ≤ 0.001) and pathological brainstem auditory evoked potential (BAEP) test findings (χ2 = 10.924, p ≤ 0.001) were more prevalent in the MS group. Diminished sense of vibration and proprioception increased the risk for developing MS by 13 times (p = 0.028), whereas positive OCBs in CSF increased the risk by 100 times (p < 0.001). MS patients that were older than 50 years were more likely to exhibit positive Babinski's reflex (χ2 = 6.993, p = 0.03), decreased muscle strength (χ2 = 13.481, p = 0.001), ataxia (χ2 = 8.135, p = 0.017), and diminished sense of vibration and proprioception (χ2 = 7.918, p = 0.019) in comparison with both younger age groups. Conclusions: Diminished sense of vibration and proprioception, spinal cord MRI lesions, positive OCBs and pathological BAEP test findings were more common among patients that developed MS. Diminished sense of vibration and proprioception along with positive CSF OCBs are predictors of CIS progressing to MS. Older patients that develop MS have more symptoms in general, such as positive Babinski's reflex, decreased muscle strength, ataxia, and diminished sense of vibration and proprioception.
| S-EPMC9500688 | biostudies-literature