A novel method for interrogating receiver operating characteristic curves for assessing prognostic tests.

ABSTRACT:

Background

Disease prevalence is rarely explicitly considered in the early stages of the development of novel prognostic tests. Rather, researchers use the area under the receiver operating characteristic (AUROC) as the key metric to gauge and report predictive performance ability. Because this statistic does not account for disease prevalence, proposed tests may not appropriately address clinical requirements. This ultimately impedes the translation of prognostic tests into clinical practice.

Methods

A method to express positive- and/or negative predictive value criteria (PPV, NPV) within the ROC space is presented. Equations are derived for so-called equi-PPV (and equi-NPV) lines. Herewith it is possible, for any given prevalence, to plot a series of sensitivity-specificit

SUBMITTER: Thomas G 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC6460848 | biostudies-literature | 2017

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature