Using a Scenario-Neutral Framework to Avoid Potential Maladaptation to Future Flood Risk.

ABSTRACT: This study develops a coherent framework to detect those catchment types associated with a high risk of maladaptation to future flood risk. Using the "scenario-neutral" approach to impact assessment the sensitivity of Irish catchments to fluvial flooding is examined in the context of national climate change allowances. A predefined sensitivity domain is used to quantify flood responses to +2 °C mean annual temperature with incremental changes in the seasonality and mean of the annual precipitation cycle. The magnitude of the 20-year flood is simulated at each increment using two rainfall-runoff models (GR4J, NAM), then concatenated as response surfaces for 35 sample catchments. A typology of catchment sensitivity is developed using clustering and discriminant analysis of physical attribute

SUBMITTER: Broderick C 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC6472323 | biostudies-literature | 2019 Feb

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature