The Value of Empirical Data for Estimating the Parameters of a Sociohydrological Flood Risk Model.

ABSTRACT: In this paper, empirical data are used to estimate the parameters of a sociohydrological flood risk model. The proposed model, which describes the interactions between floods, settlement density, awareness, preparedness, and flood loss, is based on the literature. Data for the case study of Dresden, Germany, over a period of 200 years, are used to estimate the model parameters through Bayesian inference. The credibility bounds of their estimates are small, even though the data are rather uncertain. A sensitivity analysis is performed to examine the value of the different data sources in estimating the model parameters. In general, the estimated parameters are less biased when using data at the end of the modeled period. Data about flood awareness are the most important to correctly estimat

SUBMITTER: Barendrecht MH 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC6472491 | biostudies-literature | 2019 Feb

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature