Implications of crop model ensemble size and composition for estimates of adaptation effects and agreement of recommendations.

ABSTRACT: Climate change is expected to severely affect cropping systems and food production in many parts of the world unless local adaptation can ameliorate these impacts. Ensembles of crop simulation models can be useful tools for assessing if proposed adaptation options are capable of achieving target yields, whilst also quantifying the share of uncertainty in the simulated crop impact resulting from the crop models themselves. Although some studies have analysed the influence of ensemble size on model outcomes, the effect of ensemble composition has not yet been properly appraised. Moreover, results and derived recommendations typically rely on averaged ensemble simulation results without accounting sufficiently for the spread of model outcomes. Therefore, we developed an Ensemble Outcome Agree

SUBMITTER: Rodriguez A 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC6472678 | biostudies-literature | 2019 Jan

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature